What is the main message of Destined for War?

The main message of Destined for War is that the US and China are on a path towards a dangerous conflict.

Who is the author of Destined for War?

The author of Destined for War is Graham Allison.

Politics

Destined for War Book Summary - Destined for War Book explained in key points

Listen to the Intro

00:00

Destined for War summary

Name: Destined for War
Rating: 4.2 (132 reviews)
Author: Graham Allison

Graham Allison

Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?

4.2 (132 ratings)

18 mins

Brief summary

Destined for War by Graham Allison examines the rising tensions between the United States and China and the risk of a catastrophic military conflict. The book offers valuable insights to understand and prevent such a future.

Topics

US Politics Global Politics Political Philosophy International Economics Wars China

Table of Contents

Destined for War
Summary of 4 key ideas

Audio & text in the Blinkist app

Key idea 1 of 4

What’s in it for me? Ancient wisdom for a contemporary power struggle.

In the early years of the nineteenth century, Napoleon said, “Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” Now, in the 2020s, China has well and truly woken up. At the cutting edge of industry and technology, twenty-first-century China has become a key political player on the world stage.

How this will impact the rest of the world and specifically, the United States of America, remains to be fully seen. But while analysts, politicians, and think tanks all try and look to the future to determine how China’s inexorable rise might shape the geopolitical landscape, it might be more illuminating instead to look to the past.

That’s because China and the US are currently enacting a political dynamic first obser ved by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides in the fourth century BCE – essentially, when one power rises and threatens an established power, war is the likely outcome.

So, in the Blink, we’ll uncover what ancient Greece can teach us about the coming showdown between China and the US, whether or not it will inevitably end in war, and how we might avoid it.

China’s stratospheric growth makes it a plausible rival to the US

Nearly two and a half thousand years ago, a decades-long war raged across southern Europe and the waters of the Mediterranean Sea – the Peloponnesian War. Fought between the rival kingdoms of Sparta, an established power, and Athens, a rising force, the Athenians’ eventual defeat heralded the beginning of the end of the Ancient Greek empire.

Why did the Athenians and the Spartans go to war? Plenty has been written about the diplomatic failings, shifting alliances, and territorial squabbles that lit the spark of the conflict. But contemporaneous Thucydides offers a far more succinct explanation: Athens’s rise to power inspired fear in Sparta. When this dynamic occurs, conflict is all but inevitable.

In the first decades of the twenty-first century, we’ve seen this dynamic playing out again, between two different powers: the US, which established itself as the dominant political and economic global force in the twentieth century, and China, whose swift growth sees it poised to topple American supremacy.

China’s rise as a global power has been swift. In 1971, Henry Kissinger visited China – then largely closed to foreigners – to lay the groundwork for President Richard Nixon’s visit the following year. The statesman recalled a provincial, rustic backwater. Fast-forward a few decades and the picture is quite different.

Now, China has transformed from a largely agricultural society to an industrialized nation, with the infrastructure to match. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd describes the intervening decades in China as a combination of the English Industrial Revolution and the global information revolution playing out at light speed. Rome may not have been built in a day, but by 2005 China was building the square foot equivalent of Ancient Rome every two weeks as part of its drive to modernize. On top of that, between 1949 and 2014 the average life expectancy of Chinese citizens doubled. It’s become the world’s leading producer of, among other things, aluminum, ships, computers, cell phones, clothing, and furniture – essentially, it’s the world’s dominant manufacturer. And it’s on track to becoming the world’s dominant economic power, period.

Between 1980 and 2017, China’s GDP grew from 7 percent of the US’s to 61 percent. To put that into perspective, every 2 years since 2008 the increase in the size of China’s GDP has been equal to that of the entire economy of neighboring India. And while in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, Chinese growth slowed by one-third – global growth slowed by half. Even when it was slowing down, China still came out ahead.

According to the former Singaporean Prime Minister, and astute China-watcher, Lee Kuan Yew, when China comes to full power, it won’t just tip the balance of global power. “The world,” he said, ”must find a new balance”. In his view, China isn’t another big player on the world stage – China is the biggest player. The US is certainly aware that global equilibrium is shifting. After decades of focusing foreign policy on the Middle East, in 2011 then foreign secretary Hilary Clinton announced the government’s policy focus would shift to Asia.

On its side, China is thirsty for power: this is a nation that’s not afraid to enforce sanctions or threaten aggression to force its agenda through on the world stage. It’s a situation that Thucydides might find all too familiar, and a dynamic that historians have seen acted out on the world stage time and again.

In the next section, we’ll go back in time to look at some of these instances and see which other nations have found themselves stuck in a Thucydides Trap.

Thucydides’s ideas shed light on global conflicts throughout history

Thucydides posits that when a rising power threatens to topple an entrenched power, the likeliest outcome is war – an idea that contemporary historians have labeled Thucydides Trap.

But why is conflict so often inevitable in these situations? Well, the redistribution of power causes significant geopolitical stress at a structural level – the tectonic plates that a prevailing political dynamic rests upon begin shifting and therefore become unsteady. This creates a dynamic not only in which extraordinary or aggressive political acts can lead to war but also in which ordinary points of tension – tensions which can usually be rapidly and amicably resolved – can become the flashpoints that set epic conflicts in motion.

A vast range of scenarios might lead to war

Analysts who want to gauge the likelihood of global conflict think in a similar way to park rangers during fire season. They know that, while arsonists plan to set fires, plenty of other sparks – a bonfire incorrectly extinguished, a cigarette carelessly tossed into undergrowth – can set off a blaze. They know, too, that as long as the conditions are favorable, most sparks won’t result in catastrophic wildfires. But in the middle of fire season, when the weather is dry and the forest is parched, even the smallest of sparks can build an inferno.

As things stand between the US and China, we are at the peak of fire season. China is ambitious and hungry to expand its influence. The US is keen to shore up its global power and unwilling to give up its interests in the Pacific region.

Conflict between the US and China isn’t inevitable

China is growing rapidly and seeking to assert its might; the US is unwilling to relinquish its dominant global position – there are, potentially, choppy waters ahead. But with diplomacy, strategy, and statecraft, the two nations can navigate to a peaceful outcome.

If China and the US can accommodate each other’s sometimes competing interests, this outcome wouldn’t be without precedent. In the fifteenth century, the upstart kingdom of Spain and the dominant power of Portugal tussled for control over territories in Latin America – after the Pope intervened, the two nations compromised in the Treaty of Tordesillas. In the early twentieth century, the US held the role that China does now – President Teddy Roosevelt peacefully maneuvered the country into pole global position, displacing the ruling power, Britain, in the process. Britain, acknowledging that America’s rapid growth and expanded military would soon outstrip its own, pivoted to diplomacy, signing treaties and formalizing alliances that allowed it to protect its own national interests. During the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, newly developed nuclear weapons added another layer of complexity – the threat of Mutually Assured Destruction was a deterrent to hot war. Ultimately, though, the Soviet Union didn’t demonstrate the sustained economic performance or governmental competence that would have allowed it to clinch its place as the dominant global power.

Want to see all full key ideas from Destined for War?

Key ideas in Destined for War

More knowledge in less time

Read or listen

Get the key ideas from nonfiction bestsellers in minutes, not hours.

Find your next read

Get book lists curated by experts and personalized recommendations.

Shortcasts ^New

We’ve teamed up with podcast creators to bring you key insights from podcasts.

What is Destined for War about?

Destined for War (2017) applies ancient military thinking to a very contemporary conflict: the power struggle between the established power of the US, and the rising power of China. It uncovers how this dynamic has led to conflict in past centuries, and spells out what the US and China must do in the future to avoid all-out war.

Destined for War Review

Destined for War (2017) by Graham Allison is a thought-provoking book that delves into the possibility of a future conflict between the United States and China. Here's why this book is worth reading:

It offers a comprehensive analysis of the historical patterns that have led to wars between major powers and applies them to the current relationship between the US and China.
The book explores practical strategies that could be implemented to avoid a catastrophic war and achieve a peaceful coexistence.
With its accessible writing style and compelling arguments, Destined for War keeps readers engaged and challenged throughout, shedding light on an important subject matter.

Who should read Destined for War?

News junkies who want a deeper understanding of the US’s relationship with China
Those interested in how ancient political theory can be applied to contemporary conflicts
Those new to world politics who are curious about the current power struggle between China and the US

About the Author

Graham Allison is a renowned scholar, political scientist, and the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He serves as the Director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and leads Harvard University’s long-running Thucydides Trap Project.

Categories with Destined for War

Politics History Economics

Book summaries like Destined for War

When McKinsey Comes to Town

Walt Bogdanich and Michael Forsythe

The Hidden Influence of the World's Most Powerful Consulting Firm

The Secret History of Pius XII, Mussolini, and Hitler

17 min

4.3

Unbroken Bonds of Battle

Johnny Joey Jones

A Book of Heroism, Patriotism, and Friendship

China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West

15 min

3.3

The Financial Numbers Game

Charles W. Mulford

Detecting Creative Accounting Practices

An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower

The Four Types of Human Behavior and How to Effectively Communicate with Each in Business (and in Life)

A Historical Novel on the Irrationality of Human Behavior in War

The Failure of Globalism

23 min

4.4

The Next Millionaire Next Door

Thomas J. Stanley & Sarah Stanley Fallaw

Enduring Strategies for Building Wealth

A Philosophical Journey Into Alienation

366 Meditations on Power, Seduction, Mastery, Strategy, and Human Nature

30 min

4.5

The Communist Manifesto

Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels

Workers of the world unite!

An examination of the amoral game and techniques of seducers

19 min

4.0

Moving to Outcomes

Robert Glazer & Matthew Wool

Why Partnerships Are the Future of Marketing

Thinking Our Way to Chronic Health

18 min

4.5

You Can Negotiate Anything

Herb Cohen

Anything you want, you got it

A Kinder, Funner Usage Guide for Everyone Who Cares About Words

17 min

4.1

To Kill a Mockingbird

Harper Lee

A Pulitzer Prize-Winning Classic on Racial Prejudice & Injustice

Amazon's Ruthless Quest to Own the World and Remake Corporate Power

20 min

A Peace to End All Peace

David Fromkin

The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and Creation of the Modern Middle East

29 min

4.5

The Psychology of Money

Morgan Housel

Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness

22 min

4.4

Do Breathe

Michael Townsend Williams

Calm Your Mind. Find Focus. Get Stuff Done.

Explore a Future Where Books Burn

The Art of Debating, Persuading, and Public Speaking

Explore a Labyrinth of Absurdity in This Timeless Legal Odyssey

Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

19 min

4.3

The Anxious Generation

Jonathan Haidt

How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness

20 min

4.3

Beyond the Pleasure Principle

Sigmund Freud

Delve Into Unconscious Desires

Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future

A Guide to Becoming the Parent You Want to Be

The Origins and Healing of Attention Deficit Disorder

How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection

18 min

4.0

Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin

Benjamin Franklin

Insights from an American Polymath

Know More, Make More, Give More

17 min

4.2

The Laws of Human Nature

Robert Greene

What affects your day-to-day life

29 min

4.5

How to Talk to Anyone

Leil Lowndes

92 Little Tricks for Big Success in Relationships

How to Break Away from Overworking, Overdoing, and Underliving

Philosophical Insights on Death

The Art of Seeing Others Deeply and Being Deeply Seen

Master Your Mind and Defy the Odds

How We Survive (and Thrive) in an Age of Conflict

How to Get More Done in Less Time, Outsource Everything and Create Your Ideal Mobile Lifestyle

20 min

4.1

Think Like a Rocket Scientist

Ozan Varol

Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life

20 min

4.5

What Napoleon Could Not Do

12 Mindshifts to Breakthrough Limiting Beliefs and Become Who You Were Born to Be

14 min

4.0

Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy

Joseph Schumpeter

Essential analysis on where the world economy is headed

23 min

4.1

The CBT Workbook for Mental Health

Simón Rego & Sarah Fader

Evidence-Based Exercises to Transform Negative Thoughts and Manage Your Well-Being

The Voice in Our Head, Why It Matters, and How to Harness It

21 min

4.5

People ❤️ Blinkist

Sven O.

It's highly addictive to get core insights on personally relevant topics without repetition or triviality. Added to that the apps ability to suggest kindred interests opens up a foundation of knowledge.

Thi Viet Quynh N.

Great app. Good selection of book summaries you can read or listen to while commuting. Instead of scrolling through your social media news feed, this is a much better way to spend your spare time in my opinion.

Jonathan A.

Life changing. The concept of being able to grasp a book's main point in such a short time truly opens multiple opportunities to grow every area of your life at a faster rate.

Renee D.

Great app. Addicting. Perfect for wait times, morning coffee, evening before bed. Extremely well written, thorough, easy to use.